Eating chiefs are angling for the one tiny carrot

By Okech Kendo

A dilemma does not capture the complex survival equation President Kibaki is being invited to resolve.
A dilemma poses two or more compelling choices, each with unsavoury implications. The question is whether Kibaki and his advisers are concerned with votes for the December 17 General Election or succession.

Each should be as compelling as the other. The President has to win first for his handlers to imagine talking about the Kibaki succession. But to win, the President needs votes and a network of vote getters. He needs to understand that winning is not as easy as co-opting opportunistic politicians into a Government of National Unity.
The incumbent badly needs votes, and with it come demands around a tiny carrot.
There are eating chiefs angling to support Kibaki but on their own terms. Some are calling on him by night to conspire about the size of the carrot they want. Some are scheming around this one tiny carrot.

Coast Province wants the carrot. Eastern wants it. Western wants it. Nairobi wants it. Nyanza wants it. Rift Valley wants it. Some MPs from the Rift Valley have even identified a mouth for it.
Let us begin with Rift Valley, or at least a section of it, that has always been friendly to the Government. A faction of Rift Valley MPs have asked Kibaki to dangle this carrot to the Kalenjin through Agriculture minister Mr Kipruto arap Kirwa to trap the Rift Valley vote.
The province has about three million votes, which they promise Kibaki if he takes the Minister for Agriculture as his running mate. They demand this not because Kirwa is greedy for power, but because Rift Valley is so crucial to Kibaki its ‘patrons’ cannot just give it away.

The largest voting block wants to sell its support. If Kibaki does not appoint Kirwa VP, then it will not support him. They want a compelling bait to restrain Eldoret North MP Mr William Ruto, the prime minister-designate in an Orange Democratic Movement government.
Appetite for the job too strong
There are also other provinces eyeing the carrot, with even stronger appetite. Western Province horse traders want the carrot, even though they have Vice-President Mr Moody Awori. Awori is a Luhya VP, but Ford-Kenya MPs say Awori is an outsider. This job, they say, would have been given to a Ford-Kenya MP when Vice-President Kijana Wamalwa died in 2003.

They want it for Mr Musikari Kombo, the Ford-Kenya chairman, with accomplished horse-trading skills. Dr Mukhisa Kituyi also badly needs the job to energise the Kibaki campaign. As the Narc-Kenya secretary-general, Kituyi’s appetite for the job has never been stronger.
But giving the job to Kombo will alienate Awori and Kituyi. Giving it to Kituyi would also complicate the Kibaki succession for Prof George Saitoti, Ms Martha Karua and Mr Kiraitu Murungi who have declared interest in the job in 2012.

These courtiers would be happier with Awori. Awori has no ambition to succeed Kibaki, but even if he did he is time-barred. The hitch is that with Awori and Kibaki at the top, there would be no continuity, for the party Kibaki picks.

Then comes Eastern Province, where the Kibaki team needs a strategy to deny ODM-Kenya candidate Kalonzo Musyoka some Kamba vote. But this is a tall order because Kalonzo has said he wants the Kamba in Government. Those who believe he could take them there could just drive him all the way. Charity Ngilu, who owns Narc, is not an option because she is unpredictable.
What of Kalonzo as Kibaki’s running mate? Sounds workable, but Kituyi, Kombo, Saitoti, Karua and Kiraitu are unlikely to accept this. Coast, through Shirikisho, wants Mr Ali Mwakwere as vice-president to support Kibaki’s re-election.

Ford-People MPs have helped Kibaki survive the Narc crumble and are unlikely to demand less. The President’s re-election needs Mr Simeon Nyachae now as much as the regime needed his help to survive. There must be bait for the Kisii vote. Nyachae for vice-president is not far-fetched. He is the senior most member of the Government of National Unity (GNU) and a 2002 presidential candidate.

GNU was good for survival; now Kibaki needs a winning strategy. If it were possible, eight ‘regional vice-presidents’ could do.
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The writer is The Standard Managing Editor,
Quality and Production
kendo@eastandard.net